Category Geopolitics

90 Days of Oil, Zero Grams of Metal: The Raw-Materials Gap Behind the Military Buildup

Germany is rearming at historic speed, expanding ammunition production and defense spending while the material foundation of that buildup remains largely outside Europe. Critical inputs such as rare earths, gallium, germanium and tungsten depend heavily on Chinese-controlled supply and processing chains, while Germany holds no state stockpile of these strategic metals. Military readiness is targeted for 2029, yet credible alternative supply chains may take many more years to build. The result is a fundamental contradiction: how war-ready can a country be if its defense industry can keep producing only as long as a geopolitical rival continues supplying the materials it cannot replace?

The Valve – Part 1

For decades, the United States guaranteed open sea lanes. Today, Washington claims control over the Strait of Hormuz while oil flows from Venezuela, Iran, and Saudi Arabia are being constricted - all three developments hitting China’s seaborne energy supply. Is this strategic planning, geopolitical opportunism, or a convergence whose principal beneficiary is already clear?

The Pincers Are Closing: Why Saudi Arabia’s Oil Exports Are Being Choked Off on Three Fronts

Saudi Arabia’s oil exports are being squeezed at three strategic chokepoints: the Strait of Hormuz, the damaged East–West Pipeline, and Bab al-Mandab, where Houthi forces have advanced toward the Red Sea coast. As Riyadh seeks American support and the Mecca Pact remains on the sidelines, a wider regional struggle threatens the kingdom’s economic lifeline.

The Nuclear Step: How Germany Is Becoming Part of a European Nuclear Order Without a Bomb of Its Own – Part 12

Germany is neither financing French nuclear warheads nor demonstrably contributing to Britain’s Trident system. Yet the Bundeswehr is being integrated step by step into a European nuclear order through joint exercises, operational cooperation, and a new steering group. Berlin is thus assuming responsibilities and risks - while the authority to use nuclear weapons remains in Paris, London, and Washington.

Flash: What Erdoğan Was Really Answering

Erdoğan’s warning to Greece may look like another round in the decades-old Aegean dispute. But this time, there is more behind it: just three days earlier, Athens and Israel had signed a multibillion-euro agreement for the “Achilles Shield” air-defense system. Its planned deployment on the eastern Aegean islands now intersects with an old treaty dispute - and with a new security axis linking Israel, Greece and Cyprus. The key question is therefore no longer whether the dispute is returning, but whether it has become part of a broader regional realignment.

Half-Enforced: Why Washington Is Breaking Two of China’s Three Sanctioned Oil Flows – and Letting the Biggest One Run

A US congressional report portrays China as the central clearing market for sanctioned oil from Iran, Venezuela and Russia. Yet current data reveal a striking asymmetry: Washington has largely broken two of those flows while leaving the biggest one running at multibillion-dollar scale. The difference says less about the effectiveness of sanctions than about the limits of American power when confronted with China.

The Mecca Pact – Who Is Moving Around It – Part 2

The Mecca Pact is more than an alliance between Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan. What matters just as much is who stays outside, who wants in, and who begins building counter-alliances: Egypt’s absence, Qatar’s distance, Pakistan’s Afghanistan conflict, Syria’s strategic position, and India’s response reveal how the Middle East’s security order is being reshaped.

The Mecca Pact: What Three States Really Signed – Part 1

An attack on one will be considered an attack on all - that is the central pledge of the new Mecca Pact between Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan. Yet when a Saudi refinery burned less than 48 hours later, Ankara and Islamabad remained silent. Behind the sweeping labels of an “Islamic NATO” and a “nuclear umbrella” stands a real alliance with substantial military capabilities - but no published treaty text, defined assistance obligations, or operational command structure.

The Flash: “The Southern Shipping Lane” or “What Trump’s Threat Against Oman Reveals About the Real U.S. Strategy in the Strait of Hormuz”

Donald Trump is threatening to bomb Oman - a country that has been a close U.S. partner for roughly 200 years. Officially, the dispute concerns freedom of navigation and an Iranian-Omani agreement. Yet while Washington rejects any regional control over the passage, the U.S. military is building its own system of nightly convoys, checkpoints, and air cover in the southern shipping lane. The real dispute may not be whether someone controls the valve - but who gets to keep a hand on it.

The Countermove: China’s Quiet Answer Without Firing a Shot – Part 11

China is responding to America’s strategic pivot towards Asia not with military threats, but through export licences, critical-mineral controls, and the pursuit of technological autonomy. Beijing’s dominant position in rare earths gives it direct leverage over Europe’s rearmament plans and Western high-tech industries. The analysis also shows that China and Russia do not form a unified bloc: their counterstrategies complement each other, but Beijing clearly holds the stronger hand.