Category Geopolitics

Georgia: The Mechanism Nobody Knows…

A mechanism invoked only 16 times in 35 years - its previous targets: Belarus, Chechnya, Turkmenistan. Now Georgia has been added to that list. An EU candidate country whose government has jailed opposition leaders, dismantled civil society through legislation, and allegedly sprayed protesters with a chemical agent abandoned after World War I. What the Moscow Mechanism is, why it is so rarely used - and what its activation against Georgia reveals about a country that just three years ago was celebrated as a post-Soviet success story.

INTRO – The Prepared War – 12 Parts

Wars don't come out of nowhere. They are prepared - in budget debates, treaty clauses, industry conferences, and legal documents almost no one reads. Michael Hollister has read them. Across nine parts, he reconstructs how Germany and Europe are being systematically converted for war: the war economy, the EU military architecture, the legal automatisms that require no vote. Every part is a piece. Only when you see them all does the mosaic emerge - and what might come next becomes visible.

Follow the Oil -Part 3- The Gulf States Between the Fronts

For decades, hosting US military bases was considered an ironclad guarantee of security in the Gulf. Iran has shattered that assumption since February 28, 2026 - methodically, deliberately, at enormous cost to itself. When Washington achieves its objectives and leaves, what remains? A weakened but undefeated Iran. A fractured security architecture. And a bill that no one in Washington intends to pay.

Follow the Oil -Part 2- Europe Without Oil

Europe didn’t suddenly stumble into an energy crisis - it sidelined itself step by step. With the destruction of Nord Stream, the political decoupling from Russia, and the simultaneous escalation in the Middle East, two of its key energy lifelines collapsed at once: East and South. What remains is a continent stripped of strategic agency - militarily unable to secure resources, economically dependent on costly imports, and politically trapped in contradictions it can no longer reconcile.
As Hormuz is blocked, Bab al-Mandab comes under pressure, and the United States openly states that Europe should “secure its own oil,” a new reality is emerging: energy is no longer just an economic factor, but a geopolitical weapon. Part 2 of this series examines how Europe has drifted into structural dependency - and why other actors are capitalizing on it.

Iran Insight: “Rescue Mission”

Was the celebrated U.S. “rescue mission” in Iran in fact a failed covert nuclear recovery operation? Michael Hollister reconstructs the inconsistencies, military patterns, and operational clues surrounding the downing of an F-15E, the destruction of special operations aircraft near Isfahan, and the trail of 200 kilograms of missing highly enriched uranium. The article challenges Washington’s official hero narrative and points toward a far more consequential mission that may never have been about rescuing a stranded colonel at all.

Iran Insight: Ground Troops and the Double Lock

8,000 to 10,000 US troops are heading to the Persian Gulf. Marines, paratroopers, amphibious assault ships. This is not a show of force - it costs hundreds of millions of dollars.
Their target has a name: Kharg Island.
Whoever controls Kharg controls Iran's oil, China's supply, and the Strait of Hormuz simultaneously. And if Iran closes the second chokepoint, the entire trade route between Asia and Europe collapses.

Iran Insight – Commentary: What Happens When Bushehr Burns

Three projectiles have struck the premises of the Bushehr nuclear power plant. Nine days apart. No reactor damage, officials say. Not yet. This article explains what happens when the next one hits - and why it doesn't even need to strike the reactor directly. 62 million people, no drinking water, a radioactive sea, three nuclear sites simultaneously. This is not a scenario. This is physics.

Follow the Oil -Part 1- How Washington Is Dismantling China’s Energy Supply

Syria, Venezuela, Iran, Panama. The list of U.S. military operations and pressure campaigns over the past 25 years reads like an atlas of global oil reserves. No coincidence — but the operational logic of a closing window. Washington has known since the 2016 RAND study that China must be contained before it reaches military parity with the United States, and that window closes around 2026. What has followed is the systematic dismantling of China's energy supply: seizing the world's largest oil reserves in Venezuela, bombing China's most important oil supplier in Iran, severing the Belt and Road land corridor through Syria, and expelling Chinese port operators from Panama. Follow the oil. It tells you more about the future of the world order than any press conference ever will.

When the Osprey and the Marines Show Up, It’s Not About Bridges

When Ospreys and Marines are deployed, it is not about presence - it is about options. This analysis explains why the combination of MV-22 tiltrotors and a Marine Expeditionary Unit signals not deterrence, but the capability for rapid, precise operations deep inside contested territory. What is currently building in the Persian Gulf is not a show of force - it is a toolkit for missions that can begin at any moment.

IRAN: What the Bombs Leave Behind

The headlines report military success, destroyed centrifuges, a weakened enemy. What they don't report: the International Atomic Energy Agency has confirmed radioactive releases at four Iranian nuclear sites – and cannot account for roughly 200 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent. Material sufficient for up to five nuclear warheads is at an unknown location. At the same time, the one figure who served as a religious and institutional brake against Iranian nuclear weapons is dead. What this war was supposed to prevent, it may have made possible.