Michael Hollister

Michael Hollister

Iran Insight: Ground Troops and the Double Lock

8,000 to 10,000 US troops are heading to the Persian Gulf. Marines, paratroopers, amphibious assault ships. This is not a show of force - it costs hundreds of millions of dollars.
Their target has a name: Kharg Island.
Whoever controls Kharg controls Iran's oil, China's supply, and the Strait of Hormuz simultaneously. And if Iran closes the second chokepoint, the entire trade route between Asia and Europe collapses.

Iran Insight – Commentary: What Happens When Bushehr Burns

Three projectiles have struck the premises of the Bushehr nuclear power plant. Nine days apart. No reactor damage, officials say. Not yet. This article explains what happens when the next one hits - and why it doesn't even need to strike the reactor directly. 62 million people, no drinking water, a radioactive sea, three nuclear sites simultaneously. This is not a scenario. This is physics.

Follow the Oil -Part 1- How Washington Is Dismantling China’s Energy Supply

Syria, Venezuela, Iran, Panama. The list of U.S. military operations and pressure campaigns over the past 25 years reads like an atlas of global oil reserves. No coincidence — but the operational logic of a closing window. Washington has known since the 2016 RAND study that China must be contained before it reaches military parity with the United States, and that window closes around 2026. What has followed is the systematic dismantling of China's energy supply: seizing the world's largest oil reserves in Venezuela, bombing China's most important oil supplier in Iran, severing the Belt and Road land corridor through Syria, and expelling Chinese port operators from Panama. Follow the oil. It tells you more about the future of the world order than any press conference ever will.

When the Osprey and the Marines Show Up, It’s Not About Bridges

When Ospreys and Marines are deployed, it is not about presence - it is about options. This analysis explains why the combination of MV-22 tiltrotors and a Marine Expeditionary Unit signals not deterrence, but the capability for rapid, precise operations deep inside contested territory. What is currently building in the Persian Gulf is not a show of force - it is a toolkit for missions that can begin at any moment.

Atlantic Council: The Chessboard of Opinion Makers

Foreign policy “expertise” in Washington is not a neutral space - it is a market. Millions from Gulf states and defense contractors flow into think tanks that simultaneously analyze, legitimize, and help prepare wars. This article uses concrete cases and data to expose how influence operates without ever being openly declared - and why “independent analysis” often isn’t.

IRAN: What the Bombs Leave Behind

The headlines report military success, destroyed centrifuges, a weakened enemy. What they don't report: the International Atomic Energy Agency has confirmed radioactive releases at four Iranian nuclear sites – and cannot account for roughly 200 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent. Material sufficient for up to five nuclear warheads is at an unknown location. At the same time, the one figure who served as a religious and institutional brake against Iranian nuclear weapons is dead. What this war was supposed to prevent, it may have made possible.

Greenland – The Arctic Deal – Part 2

Whoever controls the GIUK Gap controls the passage between the Arctic and the Atlantic. Whoever controls Pituffik controls the GIUK Gap. Whoever controls Greenland holds the bolt - without a flag, without a treaty, without bearing a cent of infrastructure costs. Cui bono? The United States gets the control. Europe pays the bill. Greenland was not asked. This is not an alliance. It is a division of labor among unequals.

The Eternal Race – Panzerfaust, Iron Dome, and the Illusion of the Perfect Shield

Since 1943, the same law has held: every weapon generates its defense. Every defense generates its circumvention. On March 1, 2026, that law was confirmed over Israeli skies - by an Iranian missile no system in the world could stop. What connects the Panzerfaust to Iron Dome, Arrow-3, and Donald Trump's $175 billion Golden Dome project is not a technical detail. It is a fundamental law of military history. And its consequences reach far beyond the Middle East.

Turkey 2026 – The Power Nobody Will Name

A missile intercepted over Turkish territory initially appeared to be just another episode in the widening Iran war. Yet the incident may signal something far more consequential. While global attention focuses on Tehran, a new geopolitical narrative is quietly taking shape: Turkey is increasingly framed as the West’s next strategic problem. This article examines who is constructing this narrative, whose interests it serves, and why Ankara has become one of the few states capable of operating simultaneously within NATO, alongside Russia, and in cooperation with China and the Global South. The real question is not whether Turkey poses a threat. It is what kind of regional order is intended to emerge after the Iran war - and who benefits if Turkey is pushed outside it.