UPDATE: Mali Situation Report – 29. May 2026

By late May 2026, Mali has reached a strategic breaking point. Russia’s Africa Corps has abandoned the entire north, JNIM is choking key supply routes into Bamako, the Islamic State is exploiting the vacuum, and the junta is already looking for new partners in Ankara, Tehran and Beijing. What Moscow once sold as its successful Sahel security model is collapsing under pressure: Kidal has fallen, the capital is being economically squeezed, and the Alliance of Sahel States is facing its first existential stress test. This situation report explains why Mali is not merely burning - but why its breakdown could reshape the security order of West Africa.