by Michael Hollister
Exclusive published at Michael Hollister on May 24, 2026

2.242 words * aprox. 10 minutes readingtime

The in-depth analysis covering additional campaign promises, the welfare state under pressure, the economic record, and the BlackRock-Ukraine connection can be found here:
Twelve Months of Friedrich Merz

Three Breaks, One Assessment

Forsa director Peter Matuschek formulated a sentence in the trend barometer of May 12, 2026 that German pollsters rarely speak aloud. “That someone gets under 15 percent approval,” he said, was something he had never seen in his career. The figure Friedrich Merz posted that day is 13 percent. Eighty-seven percent of Germans reject the work of their federal chancellor. The previous low point of his predecessor Olaf Scholz stood at 18 percent approval in September 2024. Merz falls five points short of that. A survey by the US firm Morning Consult, which compared the popularity of heads of government in 24 democracies in April 2026, placed him last. Rated worse than Donald Trump, worse than Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

The chancellor himself has a remarkable answer to this. “No federal chancellor before me has had to endure something like this,” Merz complained in late April 2026 in Der Spiegel. It is a grievance that demands something it treats as self-evident: respect. My grandmother had two sentences for this kind of expectation. Don’t listen to what they say – watch what they do. And: respect is not something you receive. Respect is something you earn.

Friedrich Merz was elected federal chancellor on May 6, 2025. Today, on May 16, 2026, the probationary period is over. A sober accounting is due. Here are the three breaks that define it.

Break One: The Debt Brake, Before the Oath

There is a peculiarity of Merz’s chancellorship that shifts all benchmarks. The greatest breach of a campaign promise took place before he became chancellor. During the campaign, Merz had made the debt brake a matter of party identity. “We don’t have a revenue problem, we have a spending problem” was the guiding principle with which the CDU entered every talk show until shortly before the federal election on February 23, 2025.

On March 18, 2025, 512 members of the outgoing – that is, already voted-out – Bundestag voted for a law that restructures the constitutional debt rule. Two hundred and six members voted against. The law established two things simultaneously. First, a special fund of 500 billion euros for infrastructure, whose debt-financed costs are exempted from the debt brake. Second, a carve-out from the debt rule for defense expenditures exceeding one percent of gross domestic product. The draft had emerged from the exploratory talks between Merz and the SPD. It was a vote conducted by a parliament the voters had already sent into retirement, to approve a constitutional amendment that the newly constituted Bundestag might not have been able to bring about in that configuration.

Merz commented on the process publicly. In a ZDF documentary filmed inside CDU headquarters, he said: “I personally am paying for this with a considerable loss of credibility as well.” It is a remarkable statement. A man who has not yet taken office as federal chancellor acknowledges that he is losing credibility before he has sworn the oath upon it. The NZZ called the outcome a “debt orgy” in August 2025. It is a description that no one in the CDU would have agreed with a year ago. Today, no one in the party disputes it anymore.

Break Two: Migration

There is hardly a topic in the 2024/25 campaign with which Merz bound more voters to the CDU/CSU than migration policy. His five-point plan, worked into every interview in the fall of 2024, demanded “de facto entry bans” for persons without valid documentation. CDU Bundestag member Julia Klöckner put it in a public statement with a clarity that could not be walked back afterward. “On day 1 of a federal government under Chancellor Merz,” the borders would be “closed by directive authority.”

Let us look at what actually happened. Between early May and late July 2025, 474 asylum seekers were prevented from crossing the border by the Federal Police, according to research by the Neue Zürcher Zeitung. In the same period, approximately 23,000 people filed first-time asylum applications in Germany. In March 2026, Merz stepped before the cameras and announced that by 2029, 80 percent of Syrians living in Germany should return to their homeland. At the time of this announcement, four deportations of Syrians had been carried out. Four. Even his own Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul publicly distanced himself from his chancellor’s stated target.

Whoever voted CDU/CSU on the basis of Klöckner’s day-1 promise sees the gap every day when they open a newspaper. 474 pushbacks against 23,000 asylum applications. Four deportations against an announced 80 percent repatriation. That is not the promise that was made. It is the opposite of it.

Break Three: The Economy

It is the promise with which Friedrich Merz bound the most voters to his party. The economy. At the CDU’s campaign launch in Mannheim in January 2025, he invoked a “policy shift for a country with a future,” warned of a third consecutive year of recession, demanded “new room to breathe” for businesses, faster procedures, more prosperity. Economic competence was the Union’s central campaign argument. A former chairman of the BlackRock Deutschland supervisory board in the chancellery, a seasoned fiscal politician as finance minister – that was the image with which the CDU captured the center. Whoever considered Olaf Scholz unfit for economic leadership had their answer in Merz. Or so the expectation went. Let us look at what materialized.

In the second quarter of 2025 – the first full quarter of his chancellorship – German gross domestic product shrank by 0.1 percent. The International Monetary Fund projects 0.1 percent growth for 2025, the OECD 0.4 percent. Germany is thus at the bottom of the eurozone. For 2026, the IMF expects 0.9 percent – still at the lower end of the eurozone, still trailing Italy, Spain, and France. Corporate insolvencies rose by 22.2 percent in 2024, and the trend continues through 2025 and 2026. Tax relief for consumers on electricity prices or the solidarity surcharge – a reasonable expectation within the conservative campaign universe – has not materialized.

Instead, social contributions have been raised. The average supplemental contribution to statutory health insurance rose from 2.5 percent in 2025 to 2.9 percent in 2026. The contribution assessment ceilings were raised noticeably for 2026. The Cologne Institute for Economic Research puts the burden ratio – taxes plus social contributions as a share of gross domestic product – at 41.5 percent for 2025. It is a historic high. The chancellor who promised to relieve the burden on working people has, net, burdened them more heavily than any of his predecessors.

What are the consequences? In his DGB address on May 12, 2026, Merz announced that he would “modify” free dependent coverage under statutory health insurance – a word behind which stands a minimum contribution of roughly 225 euros per month for non-employed spouses. On pension reform, Merz said at the same event: “This is not malice on my part or on the part of the federal government – this is demography and mathematics.” The audience responded with booing and laughter. At the national congress of the German Trade Union Confederation. Before delegates representing their members. It was the first CDU chancellor in eight years on that platform, and it became an appearance that DGB officials since describe as “instructive” – in the sense of what they will not do again in future.

At the Bundestag debate marking the one-year review on May 6, 2026, Green MP Julian Joswig reduced the economic situation to a pointed remark that has since been cited in multiple commentaries. “The only thing that has reliably grown after one year of Federal Chancellor Merz and Federal Economics Minister Katherina Reiche is the disappointment.” The diagnosis comes from the opposition. It would be less painful if, coming from the opposition, it were not so precise.

Whoever voted for Friedrich Merz because they wanted the man with economic experience has received growth of 0.9 percent, a record social contributions burden, a special fund debt load of 500 billion euros, continuing waves of insolvencies, and the prospect of a health insurance contribution for their own spouse. The former BlackRock supervisory board chairman is administering the economic laggard of the eurozone.

Break Four: Foreign Policy

Perhaps nowhere is the gap between stated ambition and outcome as densely documented as in foreign policy. There are three world regions and three affronts. They follow a logic every business attorney knows. Whoever publicly takes shots at a negotiating partner should be prepared for that partner to remember.

United States. During the 2024 US campaign, Merz positioned himself – according to a Bundestag member speaking in a plenary session on June 4, 2025 – against Donald Trump. Current Foreign Minister Wadephul and CSU leader Söder had spoken out “explicitly” in favor of his opponent Kamala Harris. Merz himself is alleged to have described Trump “as a danger to democracy.” In April 2026, at a school event in his constituency of Marsberg, the same man as federal chancellor said of the United States: “The Americans obviously have no strategy.” Trump’s response followed on Truth Social. Merz was “totally ineffective,” doing a “terrible job,” and Germany was a “broken country” – particularly on migration and energy. The US president announced the withdrawal of 5,000 American troops from Germany.

Iran. On June 17, 2025, on the sidelines of the G7 summit in Canada, Merz gave an interview to ZDFheute live on the Iran war then underway. On Israel’s conduct, he said verbatim: “This is the dirty work that Israel is doing for all of us.” Eight months later, on February 5, 2026, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi posted on the platform X. He credited Merz with “political naivety” and a “repugnant character.” Araghchi wrote explicitly: “When Israel killed more than 1,000 Iranians in June 2025, he was effusive.” In doing so, the Iranian foreign minister linked the insult directly to Merz’s “dirty work” statement. Araghchi called Germany “an engine of regression” and expressed the hope “that Germany will once again have a more mature and honorable political leadership.” It is an attack by a foreign minister on a sitting federal chancellor without precedent in German diplomatic history.

China. In early October 2025, a two-day trip by Foreign Minister Wadephul to Beijing was planned. The Foreign Office announced on the Friday before the Sunday departure that the trip would be postponed. The stated reason: Beijing had “confirmed no adequate additional appointments beyond a meeting between the minister and his counterpart Wang Yi.” The taz called the episode “a foreign policy disaster.” ZDF spoke of a “diplomatic scandal.” The rescheduled visit in December 2025 was hardly better. Wadephul arrived, met Wang Yi, met the commerce minister, met Vice President Han Zheng. The subsequent press conference lasted under twenty minutes. Wadephul, as China’s state media outlet Global Times itself observed, took no questions from Chinese media. It is not imaginable that a foreign minister under Helmut Schmidt, Helmut Kohl, or Angela Merkel would have been treated this way in Beijing.

Three world regions, three affronts. When Trump, Araghchi, and the Chinese leadership respond to the German head of government at the same level, in the same phase of a chancellorship, that is the language in which great powers communicate to one another: there is not much to be done with this one.

The Assessment

Friedrich Merz has, in one year, produced a record that is difficult to classify even in the vocabulary of German employment references. The debt brake, which he declared a matter of party identity, he qualified before taking office through a special fund of 500 billion euros. The day-1 border closure his party promised he reduced to 474 pushbacks in three months, while 23,000 first-time asylum applications were filed in the same period. The economic turnaround, which was the central competence promise, is GDP growth of 0.9 percent for 2026 – last place in the eurozone, against a simultaneously historic high in the contributions burden. The transatlantic bridge he cultivated for twenty years is now a threat to withdraw 5,000 US troops. The Iranian foreign minister publicly credits him with a “repugnant character.” The Chinese leadership treats his foreign minister as a supplicant.

The numbers with which the German people have receipted this record are without precedent in their concentration. Forsa, May 12, 2026: 13 percent approval. Morning Consult, April 2026: 76 percent disapproval. Ipsos, January 2026: 17 percent consider the chancellor’s political work credible, 64 percent consider it not credible. YouGov, April 2026: the AfD, at 27 percent, leads the CDU/CSU, at 23 percent, for the first time by a clear margin. INSA, early May 2026: nearly 50 percent of respondents wish for an early end to the coalition.

Friedrich Merz complained publicly in late April 2026. “No federal chancellor before me has had to endure something like this.” The answer to that is provided by the grandmother from the Sauerland. Respect is not something you receive. Respect is something you earn. When 87 percent of a nation withholds approval from its head of government and 64 percent deny him credibility, that is not a mood. That is a finding.

Don’t listen to what he says. Watch what he does.

The in-depth analysis covering additional campaign promises, the welfare state under pressure, the economic record, and the BlackRock-Ukraine connection can be found here:

Michael Hollister
is a geopolitical analyst and investigative journalist. He served six years in the German military, including peacekeeping deployments in the Balkans (SFOR, KFOR), followed by 14 years in IT security management. His analysis draws on primary sources to examine European militarization, Western intervention policy, and shifting power dynamics across Asia. A particular focus of his work lies in Southeast Asia, where he investigates strategic dependencies, spheres of influence, and security architectures. Hollister combines operational insider perspective with uncompromising systemic critique-beyond opinion journalism. His work appears on his bilingual website (German/English) www.michael-hollister.com, at Substack and in investigative outlets across the German-speaking world and the Anglosphere.

Sources

1. Deutscher Bundestag – Mehrheit für Reform der Schuldenbremse (March 13, 2025): https://www.bundestag.de/dokumente/textarchiv/2025/kw12-de-sondersitzung-1056916
2. ZDF Inside CDU – Merz zum Glaubwürdigkeitsverlust: https://www.zdfheute.de/politik/deutschland/inside-cdu-merz-wahlergebnis-wahlversprechen-100.html
3. NZZ – 100 Tage Merz: Diese Versprechen hat der Kanzler gebrochen: https://www.nzz.ch/visuals/100-tage-merz-diese-versprechen-hat-er-gebrochen-die-bilanz-ld.1895991
4. Deutscher Bundestag – Beziehungen zu USA vor Merz-Reise umstritten (June 4, 2025): https://www.bundestag.de/dokumente/textarchiv/2025/kw23-de-aktuelle-stunde-usa-1083876
5. Apollo News – Trump attackiert Merz: „Kein Wunder, dass es Deutschland so schlecht geht!”: https://apollo-news.net/trump-attackiert-merz-kein-wunder-dass-es-deutschland-so-schlecht-geht/
6. ZDFheute – Merz: Israel macht in Iran „Drecksarbeit für uns alle” (June 17, 2025): https://www.zdfheute.de/politik/g7-gipfel-merz-100.html
7. Tagesspiegel – „Widerwärtiger Charakter”: Irans Außenminister attackiert Kanzler Merz: https://www.tagesspiegel.de/internationales/widerwartiger-charakter-irans-aussenminister-attackiert-kanzler-merz-und-hofft-auf-regierungswechsel-15221129.html
8. t-online – Absage von Wadephuls China-Reise: Der Streit spitzt sich weiter zu: https://www.t-online.de/nachrichten/deutschland/aussenpolitik/id_100973014/absage-von-wadephuls-china-reise-es-herrscht-alarmstufe-rot.html
9. ZDFheute – Wadephul reist doch nicht nach China: https://www.zdfheute.de/politik/wadephul-china-reise-absage-100.html
10. 20 Minuten – Friedrich Merz: Nur 13 Prozent Zustimmung in Forsa-Umfrage (May 12, 2026): https://www.20min.ch/story/deutschland-sowas-noch-nie-gesehen-umfrage-ohrfeige-fuer-friedrich-merz-103561649
11. 20 Minuten – Merz auf Tiefstwert: 87% der Deutschen unzufrieden mit der Bundesregierung: https://www.20min.ch/story/umfrage-ohrfeige-das-macht-kanzler-merz-falsch-103561716
12. CDU – Wahlkampfauftakt: Politikwechsel für ein Land mit Zukunft: https://www.cdu.de/aktuelles/funktionierender-staat/wahlkampfauftakt-politikwechsel-fuer-ein-land-mit-zukunft/
13. Steuerzahler Schleswig-Holstein – Statistik Steuern Deutschland (IW Köln 41.5 percent burden ratio): https://steuerzahler-schleswig-holstein.de/statistik-steuern-deutschland-zahlen-fakten-2025-2026/
14. surplus magazin – Pfiffe und Buhrufe für Merz beim DGB-Bundeskongress: https://www.surplusmagazin.de/pfiffe-buhrufe-merz-rede-dgb-bundeskongress/
15. Deutscher Bundestag – Fraktionen ziehen Bilanz des ersten Regierungsjahres (May 6, 2026; Joswig quote): https://www.bundestag.de/dokumente/textarchiv/2026/kw19-de-aktuelle-stunde-bundesregierung-1174104

© Michael Hollister – All rights reserved. Redistribution, publication or reuse of this text requires express written permission from the author. For licensing inquiries, please contact the author via www.michael-hollister.com.

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