For decades, hosting US military bases was considered an ironclad guarantee of security in the Gulf. Iran has shattered that assumption since February 28, 2026 - methodically, deliberately, at enormous cost to itself. When Washington achieves its objectives and leaves, what remains? A weakened but undefeated Iran. A fractured security architecture. And a bill that no one in Washington intends to pay.
Europe didn’t suddenly stumble into an energy crisis - it sidelined itself step by step. With the destruction of Nord Stream, the political decoupling from Russia, and the simultaneous escalation in the Middle East, two of its key energy lifelines collapsed at once: East and South. What remains is a continent stripped of strategic agency - militarily unable to secure resources, economically dependent on costly imports, and politically trapped in contradictions it can no longer reconcile.
As Hormuz is blocked, Bab al-Mandab comes under pressure, and the United States openly states that Europe should “secure its own oil,” a new reality is emerging: energy is no longer just an economic factor, but a geopolitical weapon. Part 2 of this series examines how Europe has drifted into structural dependency - and why other actors are capitalizing on it.