UPDATE – US AND ISRAEL ATTACK IRAN – May 24, 2026

UPDATE Report – Updated: May 24, 2026 – Building on my update from May 20, 2026

by Michael Hollister
Exclusive published at Michael Hollister on May 24, 2026

3.036 words * 16 minutes readingtime

TICKER

TRUMP ANNOUNCES “LARGELY NEGOTIATED” – TEHRAN IMMEDIATELY CONTRADICTS
On the evening of May 23, Trump posted on his social media platform that a deal with Iran had been “largely negotiated” – a Memorandum of Understanding as a first phase, with the Strait of Hormuz to be opened. He said he had spoken by phone with the leaders of Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, Jordan, and Bahrain, and separately with Netanyahu. “The final aspects and details of the Deal are being discussed and will be announced shortly,” Trump wrote. Iran’s Foreign Ministry confirmed an MoU as a first step, but emphasized that broader negotiations are to follow within 30 to 60 days. Iran’s Fars News Agency immediately contradicted: the Strait of Hormuz would remain under Iranian control – Trump’s announcement of an opening was “incomplete and not consistent with reality.” Trump made no mention whatsoever of the nuclear program or the highly enriched uranium.

MUNIR RECEIVED AT STATE VISIT LEVEL IN TEHRAN – PEZESHKIAN AND GHALIBAF
Pakistani Army Chief Field Marshal Syed Asim Munir met personally with President Pezeshkian in Tehran on May 23 – Iran’s presidential office released an official photograph. Munir also met with Parliamentary Speaker Ghalibaf and Foreign Minister Araghchi. At the same time, a Qatari delegation traveled to Tehran and joined the mediation efforts. Munir was simultaneously on the participant list of Trump’s phone call with regional leaders – making him the only actor this week to have spoken with both sides at the highest level. Pakistan had organized the Islamabad Talks, brokered the April 08 ceasefire, and paused Project Freedom at Pakistan’s request. What was discussed in Tehran goes beyond pure US-Iran mediation, according to several observers.

TULSI GABBARD RESIGNS AS DNI DIRECTOR
Tulsi Gabbard, US Director of National Intelligence, submitted her resignation on May 23 – officially citing her husband’s cancer diagnosis. Gabbard had been, since the start of the war, the last remaining voice in the Trump cabinet with a demonstrably restrained assessment of the Iranian threat: her office had assessed in March that Iran was not building a nuclear bomb; Trump himself called her “softer” than him on the nuclear question. Her deputy Joe Kent had already resigned in March, citing explicitly anti-war grounds. The Iranian embassy in Armenia commented on Gabbard’s departure on social media: she had “spoken truths about Iran that Trump hated.” Gabbard’s exit removes the last institutional counterweight in the White House – at the precise moment a deal is announced that explicitly defers nuclear questions to a later round of negotiations.

SHOOTING AT THE WHITE HOUSE – SECURITY INCIDENT DURING DEAL ANNOUNCEMENT
Immediately during the announcement of the Iran deal, a security incident occurred at the White House: an armed man opened fire toward the building and was shot dead by the Secret Service. One bystander was injured. Trump was in the White House at the time and was unharmed. The White House was briefly placed on lockdown. Several media outlets reported that the formal announcement of further deal details may have been delayed by the incident.

US PREPARES STRIKES – MILITARY AND INTELLIGENCE PERSONNEL CUT SHORT LEAVE
The Trump administration was simultaneously preparing a renewed military strike against Iran, sources with direct knowledge of the planning told CBS News. No final decision had been made as of Friday midday. Several members of the US military and intelligence community cut short their Memorial Day plans – in anticipation of possible strikes. The Pentagon began updating recall lists for US installations abroad. Trump himself said he would not spend the weekend in New Jersey but would return to the White House – “circumstances pertaining to the government” prevented his planned absence; his son Donald Trump Jr.’s wedding took place without him.

RUBIO AT NATO MEETING IN SWEDEN: “SLIGHT PROGRESS,” “PLAN B” FOR HORMUZ
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio struck a cautiously optimistic tone on May 22 on the sidelines of a NATO foreign ministers’ meeting in Sweden: there had been “slight movement” in the negotiations – “I don’t want to overstate it, but that’s good.” At the same time he made clear that two core issues remained unresolved: the highly enriched uranium and the Strait of Hormuz. Rubio called on NATO partners to develop a “Plan B” in the event Iran did not open the strait. He said individual allies with interests in the strait “have to start thinking” about what to do in that scenario. The US would not need help opening the strait but was prepared to bring allies along. France is simultaneously drafting its own UN resolution text – an international mission to restore freedom of navigation, more neutrally worded than the US-Bahrain draft, which faces an expected Chinese-Russian veto.

IRAN INSTITUTIONALIZES HORMUZ CONTROL – PERSIAN GULF STRAIT AUTHORITY OFFICIALLY ESTABLISHED
On May 18, Iran officially announced the establishment of the Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA) on social media – a state agency to regulate shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. The authority requires vessels to pre-register by email, disclosing ownership, insurance, crew, and cargo. Reports indicate ships have paid up to $2 million per transit, with payment in Chinese yuan or via IRGC-linked Bitcoin wallets. No official tariffs have been published. Iran and Oman are negotiating a joint regulatory framework. The PGSA has published its own map on X claiming a “controlled maritime zone” encompassing the entire strait. Rubio called the fee system “unacceptable” and warned that such a precedent could spread to five additional chokepoints worldwide.

CONGRESS: HOUSE BREAKS OFF WAR POWERS VOTE – MAJORITY NOT SECURED
House Republican leadership called off a planned vote on a War Powers Resolution on May 22 – because the majority needed to defeat it was not secured. The resolution, introduced by Democrats, would have directed Trump to withdraw US forces from hostilities against Iran. “We had the votes without question, and they knew it,” said Democratic Representative Gregory Meeks, who introduced the resolution. House Speaker Mike Johnson declined to answer reporters’ questions. Majority Leader Steve Scalise claimed the delay was to give absent members the opportunity to vote. In the Senate, a similar resolution had cleared committee five days earlier by a vote of 50 to 47 – four Republicans had voted with the Democrats.

TAIWAN ARMS SALE PAUSED – MUNITIONS RESERVES FOR EPIC FURY
Acting US Navy Secretary Hung Cao confirmed before the Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on Defense on May 22 that a planned $14 billion arms sale to Taiwan had been paused. The stated reason: ensuring sufficient munitions reserves for Operation Epic Fury. “We have enough, but we’re making sure we have everything,” Cao said. Taiwan said it had not been notified in advance. Trump had previously described the weapons to Fox News as a “good negotiating chip” with China – he had met Xi Jinping in Beijing on May 14, where Hormuz and Taiwan were on the agenda. The incident publicly documents for the first time the scale of munitions consumption: in the first ten days of the war alone, more than 2,000 interceptor missiles were fired, according to estimates from the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

EU EXPANDS SANCTIONS AGAINST IRAN OVER HORMUZ BLOCKADE
The European Union expanded its sanctions regime against Iran on May 22 with measures specifically targeting the Hormuz blockade – until now, EU sanctions against Iran had focused on support for Russia in the Ukraine war and human rights violations. The expansion enables travel bans and asset freezes against individuals and entities responsible for impeding freedom of navigation. No specific names were announced. EU Economic Commissioner Valdis Dombrovskis and ECB President Christine Lagarde stated on the same day that energy prices in Europe would remain elevated through the end of 2027 even if the conflict were to end. The EU’s inflation forecast for 2026 was revised upward to 3.1 percent – against an earlier projection of 1.9 percent.

NPT CONFERENCE FAILS – THIRD CONSECUTIVE BREAKDOWN
The four-week UN Review Conference on the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) ended on May 22 without agreement – the third consecutive failure after 2015 and 2022. The sticking point was language in the final document stating that Iran must “never seek, develop, or acquire a nuclear weapon.” Iran blocked consensus. UN Secretary-General António Guterres expressed dismay: the “heightened risk from nuclear weapons demands urgent action.” The US and Iran had repeatedly clashed since the conference opened on April 27: Washington accused Tehran of “disregarding” its treaty obligations; Tehran declared that US and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities violated international law. Iran is an NPT signatory but has denied the IAEA access to bombed sites since the start of the war.

LEBANON: MORE THAN 3,100 DEAD SINCE MARCH 02 – MILITARY DELEGATION TO THE PENTAGON
Israeli airstrikes on southern Lebanon killed 10 people on May 22, including 6 paramedics and a Syrian child. The strikes hit the towns of Hanawieh and Deir Qanoun al-Nahr in the coastal province of Tyre. The World Health Organization had recorded 169 attacks on healthcare facilities and medical personnel in Lebanon since March 02; 116 paramedics had been killed. Lebanon’s Health Ministry reported a total of 3,111 dead and 9,432 wounded as of May 22 since the renewed outbreak of hostilities. The Israeli military stated it targets only Hezbollah infrastructure. Lebanon is meanwhile forming a military delegation for security talks with Israel at the Pentagon, scheduled for May 29 – a fourth round of negotiations is to follow in Washington in June. Hezbollah rejects the talks and refuses to disarm.

ANALYSIS

I. The MoU and Its Gaps

Trump announced on May 23 a deal he himself described as “largely negotiated.” Iran’s Foreign Ministry confirmed an MoU as Phase 1. That is where the consensus ends. Then the contradictions begin.

Trump declared the Strait of Hormuz would be opened. Fars News, Iran’s official news outlet, contradicted him within hours: Hormuz would remain under Iranian control; Trump’s formulation was “incomplete and not consistent with reality.” This is not a dispute over details. It is the central point that has been under negotiation for weeks.

Trump mentioned neither the highly enriched uranium nor the nuclear program – both of which he had described in the preceding weeks as non-negotiable. Iran has in turn signaled that it wants to discuss these issues only after a formal end to the war. The MoU defers them to a second negotiating framework, set to begin in 30 to 60 days – one that does not yet exist.

This is a familiar negotiating logic: agree on what is agreeable and declare the non-agreeable a follow-on question. The hardest test comes not on the day of the announcement, but in the second phase – when Khamenei’s directive that enriched uranium must not leave the country meets US demands for the transfer of 400 kilograms of HEU.

II. Gabbard: The End of the Internal Brake

Tulsi Gabbard’s resignation on May 23 is not a private event, even if it is presented as one. She was the last voice in the Trump cabinet with a documented dissenting position on the Iranian threat assessment. Her office had established in March that Iran was not building a nuclear bomb. Trump acknowledged in a rare public admission that she was “softer” than him on the nuclear question. Her deputy Joe Kent had already resigned in March, explicitly citing the argument that the war had been started under Israeli and lobbying pressure.

With Gabbard gone, there is no one left in the innermost decision-making circle who could institutionally counterbalance a continuation of the war or a deal that exempts nuclear questions. The Iranian embassy in Armenia commented on social media – she had spoken truths that Trump hated. It is an unusual response from an embassy to the resignation of a foreign intelligence chief. It reveals how closely Tehran is tracking the internal workings of the Trump administration.

The timing is not trivial: Gabbard departs on the day Trump announces a deal that brackets out the nuclear program. Whether that is a consequence or a condition is a question worth asking.

III. Munir as Regional Architect

Pakistan officially figures in this war as a mediator. What Munir’s week in Tehran reveals goes further. He met Pezeshkian at the presidential level – Iran’s presidential office released the photograph. He met Ghalibaf, the parliamentary speaker. He met Araghchi. At the same time, he appeared on Trump’s phone list of regional leaders said to have signed off on the MoU.

This is the architecture of an actor who is not mediating between two parties but staking a claim to his own seat at the table. Pakistan has held talks with Saudi Arabia in recent months; a meeting between Munir and the Turkish chief of staff took place – deliberately kept low-key, with minimal press coverage. Qatar is present in Tehran as an additional channel. Saudi Arabia provides financing and regional legitimacy.

What is taking shape is an informal coalition of countries that share a common strategic interest: they want no further US strike on Iran because their own security and economic situations depend directly on it. Pakistan provides the nuclear umbrella as implicit deterrence; Turkey contributes combat experience and autonomous drone technology; Saudi Arabia supplies capital; Qatar provides diplomatic infrastructure. Whether Iran itself can be counted as part of this constellation remains open – the rivalries run too deep. But convergence of purpose without formal partnership is sufficient for coordinated diplomacy.

IV. What the Deal Does Not Resolve

Iran has not given up the following as of May 23: 440 kilograms of highly enriched uranium in deep bunkers, a missile program that it says is being rebuilt, active proxies in Iraq and Lebanon, and a new Supreme Leader who has not appeared publicly once since the war began. Mojtaba Khamenei has reportedly issued an internal directive: the enriched uranium must not leave Iran.

The Iranian public has not revolted, as Trump and Netanyahu had predicted. Protests at the start of the year were suppressed. The IRGC leadership is intact. The capacity for maritime control – the PGSA apparatus, the toll infrastructure, the IRGC escort routines – has been institutionalized over three months and will not disappear on the strength of a social media announcement.

The MoU is, if it holds, a pause. It defers the hardest questions – uranium, missiles, proxies, Hormuz sovereignty – to a second negotiating phase that begins under far more difficult conditions: Iran negotiates from a position in which it has survived three months of war and institutionalized its claim over Hormuz. Washington negotiates with a Congress that is increasingly questioning the war authorization, and without the last internal voice that warned against overextension.

STRATEGIC ASSESSMENT

Day 85. Trump announced an MoU on May 23 that Tehran immediately contradicted on central points. Gabbard resigned – the last institutional counterweight in the White House is gone. Munir held state-visit-level talks in Tehran. The Strait of Hormuz now has a new administrative authority that features in none of the known draft treaty texts. The hardest questions – uranium, missiles, Hormuz sovereignty – have been deferred to a second phase that has no date. What remains as a finding: a deal was announced, but not described the same way by both sides. Tehran’s silence in the hours after Trump’s announcement was louder than any counter-statement.

Michael Hollister
is a geopolitical analyst and investigative journalist. He served six years in the German military, including peacekeeping deployments in the Balkans (SFOR, KFOR), followed by 14 years in IT security management. His analysis draws on primary sources to examine European militarization, Western intervention policy, and shifting power dynamics across Asia. A particular focus of his work lies in Southeast Asia, where he investigates strategic dependencies, spheres of influence, and security architectures. Hollister combines operational insider perspective with uncompromising systemic critique – beyond opinion journalism. His work appears on his bilingual website (German/English) www.michael-hollister.com, at Substack and in investigative outlets across the German-speaking world and the Anglosphere.

Sources

1. Al Jazeera, May 23, 2026 – Trump says Iran agreement has been largely negotiated: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/5/23/iran-war-live-tehran-says-diplomacy-continues-but-no-deal-yet-with-us
2. CNBC, May 23, 2026 – Trump says Iran deal reopening Strait of Hormuz largely negotiated: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/23/us-iran-war-talks.html
3. NPR / AP, May 23, 2026 – Trump says deal with Iran and opening of Strait of Hormuz are largely negotiated: https://www.npr.org/2026/05/23/g-s1-124145/trump-iran-deal-strait-of-hormuz
4. PBS NewsHour / AP, May 23, 2026 – Trump says deal with Iran including opening Strait of Hormuz is largely negotiated: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/world/trump-says-deal-with-iran-including-opening-strait-of-hormuz-is-largely-negotiated
5. Times of Israel, May 23, 2026 – Contradicting Trump, Iranian media says Strait of Hormuz will stay under Iran’s management: https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog-may-23-2026/
6. Washington Post / AP, May 23, 2026 – Trump says a deal with Iran and opening of Strait of Hormuz are largely negotiated: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2026/05/23/iran-united-states-war-ceasefire-negotiations-hormuz/8444a3ee-56b5-11f1-9c40-7a0a12d9e745_story.html
7. The Hill, May 23, 2026 – Loomer celebrates Gabbard resignation: https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/5892884-laura-loomer-cheers-gabbard-resignation/
8. CBS News Live, May 22, 2026 – US prepares for new military strikes against Iran: https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/iran-war-trump-us-peace-talks-strait-of-hormuz-control/
9. CBS News, May 22, 2026 – US prepares new military strikes against Iran: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/us-prepares-new-military-strikes-against-iran/
10. Al Jazeera, May 22, 2026 – US pausing 14bn arms sale to Taiwan due to Iran war: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/5/22/us-pausing-14bn-arms-sale-to-taiwan-due-to-iran-war-navy-chief-says
11. Euronews, May 22, 2026 – Taiwan says it has received no notification from US of any pause to planned arms sale: https://www.euronews.com/2026/05/22/taiwan-says-it-has-received-no-notification-from-us-of-any-pause-to-planned-12bn-arms-sale
12. Arab News / Reuters, May 22, 2026 – France readies UN resolution on Hormuz as vote on US text stalls: https://www.arabnews.com/node/2644643/middle-east
13. Windward AI, May 18, 2026 – Iran’s Hormuz Transit Toll Mechanism and What It Means at Sea: https://windward.ai/blog/irans-hormuz-transit-toll-mechanism-and-what-it-means/
14. CBS News Live, May 22, 2026 – EU moves to sanction Iran over Strait of Hormuz blockade: https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/iran-war-trump-us-peace-talks-strait-of-hormuz-control/#post-update-5e9b53be
15. NBC News, May 19, 2026 – Senate advances resolution to end Iran war as GOP Sen. Bill Cassidy flips: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/senate-advances-resolution-end-iran-war-trump-bill-cassidy-rcna346001
16. CBS News Live, May 22, 2026 – House Republicans call off vote on Iran war resolution: https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/iran-war-trump-us-peace-talks-strait-of-hormuz-control/#post-update-3ba13878
17. CBS News Live, May 22, 2026 – UN conference to review nuclear proliferation treaty ends without deal: https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/iran-war-trump-us-peace-talks-strait-of-hormuz-control/#post-update-c9e3daad
18. CBS News Live, May 22, 2026 – Death toll from Israeli attacks in Lebanon tops 3,100: https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/iran-war-trump-us-peace-talks-strait-of-hormuz-control/#post-update-2033467b
19. CBS News Live, May 22, 2026 – Lebanon says Israeli strikes kill 10: https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/iran-war-trump-us-peace-talks-strait-of-hormuz-control/#post-update-717606aa
20. Long War Journal, May 20, 2026 – Saudi Arabia and UAE say drone attacks were launched from Iraq: https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2026/05/saudi-arabia-and-uae-say-drone-attacks-were-launched-from-iraq.php
21. Euronews, May 19, 2026 – UAE says mystery drones targeting nuclear plant came from Iraq: https://www.euronews.com/2026/05/19/uae-says-mystery-drones-targeting-nuclear-plant-came-from-iraq

© Michael Hollister – All rights reserved. Redistribution, publication or reuse of this text requires express written permission from the author. For licensing inquiries, please contact the author via www.michael-hollister.com.

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