Category Situationreport

UPDATE: Russia-Ukraine Conflict – July 24, 2026

Russia’s war is reaching a point where military pressure and political instability are reinforcing each other. In Kyiv, street protests force a new military leadership; in the Black Sea, Ukraine’s grain corridor falls silent; and drone strikes are emptying the Kerch Strait while Russia’s fuel system comes under strain. At the same time, sanctions stall in Brussels and Washington, back-channel talks proceed without Kyiv, and Moscow may be preparing for another mobilization. Update No. 10 examines the shifting levers of the war - at the front, at sea, and in the political centers.

UPDATE: US AND ISRAEL ATTACK IRAN – July 22, 2026

The war against Iran has crossed another strategic threshold. As traffic through the Strait of Hormuz nearly grinds to a halt, the Houthis have declared a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia - threatening the very route meant to offset disruption in the east. At the same time, Trump is threatening a major strike on Pickaxe Mountain, considering a ground operation against Kharg Island and vowing retaliation many times over after a third US service member was killed. Pakistan is pushing a ten-day ceasefire, but the Islamabad memorandum is politically dead. This update traces the conflict’s converging military, economic and diplomatic paths of escalation.

UPDATE: US AND ISRAEL ATTACK IRAN – July 19, 2026

With the first confirmed US fatalities, attacks on civilian water and energy systems, and Iran threatening to shift to a “full-scale offensive,” the war has entered a new phase of escalation. This update examines Washington’s open consideration of a ground operation against Kharg Island, the potential closure of the Bab el-Mandeb, and an Islamabad Memorandum whose political substance has already collapsed before its 60-day deadline.

UPDATE: Russia-Ukraine Conflict – July 17, 2026

Ukraine is increasingly striking Russia’s war economy where it is most vulnerable: at sea, in its ports and across its fuel infrastructure. Yet at the very moment Kyiv claims operational momentum, Zelenskyy dismisses Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, triggering the first wartime street protests over one of his personnel decisions. This weekly update examines the expanding maritime war in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov, Russia’s deepening refinery crisis, Lindsey Graham’s sanctions bill as a political legacy, and mirrored warnings of a possible provocation in the Baltic region.

Hollister’s Geopolitics Compass * June 2026

Brussels is confronting Russia, the United States, the Gulf states and China at the same time - putting at risk the very energy supplies, raw materials and export markets on which Europe’s economic stability depends. As China tightens its grip on rare earths, Iran imposes its own rules on the Strait of Hormuz and Germany moves deeper into military production for Ukraine, new winners are emerging along the margins of the Western order. Hollister’s Geopolitical Compass for June 2026 connects seven seemingly separate crises into one recurring pattern: states are no longer losing power only because of their adversaries, but increasingly because of their own decisions.

UPDATE: US AND ISRAEL ATTACK IRAN – July 15, 2026

Five consecutive nights of U.S. strikes, a reinstated naval blockade, and Iranian retaliation across several Gulf states have brought the Islamabad Memorandum to the point of effective collapse. As Donald Trump declared himself the “Guardian of the Hormuz Strait,” demanded a 20 percent fee, and withdrew it within 24 hours, the Houthis’ attack on Saudi Arabia brought Bab al-Mandab into the conflict as a second strategic chokepoint. The escalation is no longer confined to Iran and the United States - it now reaches across the critical infrastructure of the entire Arabian Peninsula.

UPDATE: US AND ISRAEL ATTACK IRAN – July 12, 2026

While Washington and Tehran continue to talk about negotiations, escalation is already unfolding simultaneously on the military, economic, and strategic levels. This update shows how new US strikes, Iranian retaliation, the effective erosion of the memorandum, tensions around Hormuz, and visible fractures inside Tehran are creating a system in which both sides are shooting and negotiating at the same time.

UPDATE: Russia-Ukraine Conflict – July 10, 2026

Ukraine can now strike Russian refineries deep inside Siberia - yet it is increasingly unable to intercept ballistic missiles over Kyiv. While the NATO summit promises €70 billion and future Patriot production, the immediate crises on both sides are intensifying: Russia is rationing fuel, while Ukraine is running out of interceptor missiles. The war is becoming a struggle to destroy the opponent’s most vulnerable lifelines.

UPDATE: US AND ISRAEL ATTACK IRAN – July 08, 2026

The Islamabad Memorandum is facing its most severe stress test yet: Iran is shelling Qatari and Saudi ships - the very states that have spent months acting as mediators in the conflict. The United States responds with retaliatory strikes and the revocation of the oil sales authorization, while Trump, in Ankara, simultaneously speaks of progress and elevates Turkey as a new key partner. Behind the scenes, an even deeper shift is becoming visible: Mojtaba Khamenei remains invisible, the IRGC is creating facts on the ground, Israel is losing influence in Washington, and Hamas is handing over Gaza’s administration, but not its weapons. The week of July 5 to 8 does not mark a formal rupture of the memorandum - but it is the moment when its substance visibly begins to fall apart.

UPDATE: US AND ISRAEL ATTACK IRAN – July 05, 2026

As Iran buries Ali Khamenei in an unprecedented state ceremony, his son and successor Mojtaba remains conspicuously absent. At the same time, IRGC commander Ahmad Vahidi is emerging as the country’s effective centre of power, the Kurdish front is escalating, and negotiations with Washington have produced no tangible breakthrough. The war may be paused, but behind the diplomatic façade, uncertainty is growing over who truly governs Iran and how long the fragile ceasefire can hold.