Tag NATO

Hollister’s Geopolitics Compass * May 2026

May 2026 was the month in which supply itself became a weapon. What appeared in the headlines as separate crises - Hormuz, Ukraine, Europe, the Sahel, Cuba, the South Caucasus - reveals a deeper common logic: energy, raw materials, sea lanes and military power are once again being used as one integrated pressure system. Hollister’s Geopolitical Compass does not sort events by noise, but by impact: who gains room to maneuver, who loses it, and which global chains begin to break when supply, security and geopolitics merge.

UPDATE: Russia-Ukraine Conflict – June 06, 2026

Russia is intensifying its air campaign while the front line on the ground remains largely frozen. The major strike of 2 June, Ukrainian long-range attacks on St. Petersburg and Kronstadt, a drone impact on NATO territory and Zelensky’s open letter to Putin mark a week in which military escalation and diplomatic signalling unfolded side by side. This update reconstructs the key events, separates verified facts from one-sided claims, and shows why the war is currently being shaped less by territorial movement than by air defence, logistics, arms production and political endurance.

The Pattern Is Tightening

Europe is no longer merely talking about preparing for a possible major war. Over the past six months, personnel structures have been reactivated, command chains reorganized, defense spending detached from fiscal limits, Germany expanded into a military logistics hub, arms production dramatically increased, and civilian infrastructure integrated into national defense planning. This analysis shows how seemingly separate measures now form a visible pattern: a European security architecture no longer focused on abstract deterrence, but on concrete warfighting capability. A continuation of “The War Before the War – Part 7”.

The Pattern Is Tightening

Europe is no longer merely talking about preparing for a possible major war. Over the past six months, personnel structures have been reactivated, command chains reorganized, defense spending detached from fiscal limits, Germany expanded into a military logistics hub, arms production dramatically increased, and civilian infrastructure integrated into national defense planning. This analysis shows how seemingly separate measures now form a visible pattern: a European security architecture no longer focused on abstract deterrence, but on concrete warfighting capability. A continuation of “The War Before the War – Part 7”.

The Silent Axis – Four Capitals, One Movement, One Alliance?

Four capitals, one movement, one possible alliance. While the world watches the Iran war, a structural shift is unfolding behind the scenes across the Sunni space: Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Türkiye - and, more cautiously, Qatar - are converging. What Bennett described as a threat in February is beginning to take shape. And nobody is saying out loud what is being built.

A World in Flames – Part 9

What happens when the world does not collapse through one great war, but through many smaller fires that no one can extinguish?
In the final part of the series “Europe Prepares for War”, Michael Hollister examines a scenario built not on fantasy, but on existing fault lines: Korea, Taiwan, India and Pakistan, Iran and Israel, Turkey and Greece, the Balkans, the Caucasus, Myanmar, the South China Sea, and Africa.
Until now, many of these conflicts have been contained by great powers - through pressure, mediation, deterrence, or military presence. But what happens when the United States, China, and Russia are all tied down by their own major conflicts? A global power vacuum emerges. And in power vacuums, states rarely act according to morality. They act according to opportunity.

INTRO – The Prepared War – 9 Parts

Wars don't come out of nowhere. They are prepared - in budget debates, treaty clauses, industry conferences, and legal documents almost no one reads. Michael Hollister has read them. Across nine parts, he reconstructs how Germany and Europe are being systematically converted for war: the war economy, the EU military architecture, the legal automatisms that require no vote. Every part is a piece. Only when you see them all does the mosaic emerge - and what might come next becomes visible.

Greenland – The Arctic Deal – Part 2

Whoever controls the GIUK Gap controls the passage between the Arctic and the Atlantic. Whoever controls Pituffik controls the GIUK Gap. Whoever controls Greenland holds the bolt - without a flag, without a treaty, without bearing a cent of infrastructure costs. Cui bono? The United States gets the control. Europe pays the bill. Greenland was not asked. This is not an alliance. It is a division of labor among unequals.

Greenland – The Arctic Deal – Part 1

No contract. No purchase price. No signing ceremony. And yet in twenty minutes in Davos, Donald Trump achieved what other presidents would have needed decades to accomplish: strategic control over the most resource-rich and militarily significant island in the Northern Hemisphere. The Greenland framework is not a real estate deal. It is a masterclass in geopolitical method — and Europe is picking up the tab without having had a seat at the table.

Germany as a Protectorate

Germany is considered a sovereign state – but does it act like one?
This analysis examines why the Federal Republic has operated with limited autonomy in foreign, security, and economic policy since 1945.
From U.S. military bases and intelligence dependency to the Nord Stream sabotage: a sober assessment of German sovereignty beyond official narratives.